Will Hillary Give Up?
Photo: Mark Nozell (Used under Creative Commons License)
“Surrender, surrender, but don’t give yourself away”
- Cheap Trick
Hillary Clinton is a fighter. She’s had to be. It’s nevertheless looking increasingly unlikely that she’ll catch up to Obama in pledged delegates before the last caucus in June. Of course, she’s hoping that she’ll get within spitting distance and be saved by the Superdelegates (sorry, Automatic Delegates.) She’ll try to get the Michigan and Florida delegates seated as well, and maybe even force a brokered convention.
But wait. Are there any circumstances that would lead her to drop out?
Beware the Ides of March
The Clinton campaign has called the March 4th Texas and Ohio primaries “must-win” contests. The demographics of these two states would seem to favor her, but Obama has made serious inroads among female, working class, and Latino voters. In the polls, Clinton’s once formidable lead is shrinking, especially in Texas. In the national polls, Obama’s lead may be very big.
What’s more, Obama will have two whole weeks to make his case. That’s two weeks of constant TV ads and 10,000+ rallies. Obama does best in states where he has time to campaign. Hillary, who has lost the last ten primaries, resembles no one more than Rudy Giuliani: Giuliani thought he’d be able to lose the first five primaries and make his big comeback in Florida. We all know how that turned out.
Another Job
One argument for Hillary Clinton fighting to the bitter end says that she has nothing to lose and this is her last chance to be president (maybe even the last Clinton campaign). This may or may not be true. John McCain got a second chance and he’s 700 years old. However, what if another job opened up for Hillary?
A cabinet position in an Obama administration is unlikely. I doubt he’d offer her Vice President after such a vicious campaign. Besides, she voted for the war, and she doesn’t exactly represent change. And a position like Secretary of Health and Human Services is a little beneath her.
There’s one job opening, however that may be even better: Senate Majority Leader. There have been rumors that Harry Reid will step down at the end of the year. Now, ordinarily, the position would go to someone a bit more experienced (more experienced than Hillary? Does such a mortal even exist?), like Dodd, Durbin, or Schumer. But party sachems could dangle the job in front of Clinton to get her to drop out early.
Majority Leader might be the part Hillary was born to play. It requires less consensus building than President or Speaker of the House, and it would give her a prominent platform for her ideas on domestic policy.
There are a few problems: the senate is obsessed with seniority, and we already have a woman as the Speaker of the House. But if it’s a choice between that and an embarrassing brokered convention…
A Pyrrhic Victory
Imagine you’re Hillary. Congratulations, you’re the first woman nominee. Of course, the only way you won was by wrangling the Superdelegates (I mean, Automatic Delegates). So it looks like you’ve upset the will of the people. You got the delegates in Florida and Michigan seated, but this just re-enforces the idea that you’ll do anything to win.
Worst of all, It’s August. August 28th. You have just two months and one week to run for president. John McCain has been the de facto nominee for SIX MONTHS. He’s raised millions. He’s ahead in the national polls. Independents adore him. He’s got trouble with his base, but now that you’re the nominee, they’re finally starting to unite.
What have you been up to for the last six months? You’ve been running a horribly negative campaign, and your liberal use of 527’s has reminded some of George W. Bush. Many enthusiastic Obama supporters would rather stay home than vote for you. Many black voters think you stole the election. Donna Brazile just left the party.
Still want the job?
Back to the Present
Okay, let’s say Hillary wins on March 4th. If it’s a big win, which looks unlikely, then she’s right back in this thing, and Superdelegates (no, you know what, they are super) look more like tie-breakers and less like oligarchs.
If it’s a modest win, things don’t look so hot. She’d still be behind by more than 100 pledged delegates. She’ll stick around at least until the Pennsylvania Primary on April 22nd, hoping for a huge victory. But after that, if she’s still down by 100 delegates, expect a steady trickle of calls for her to step down — first by Obama loyalists, then by more and more prominent party officials. — Hillel Aron
#1.Hillary’s track record may be worse than we have now. In her own words of Failure & Blame:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=-fuqCppkfuc
#2. Your point of broad Obama support should be emphasised. NO cantidate in American history has gotten 1 million Americans do make private donations to his cause. These small donations from people, who have often little, should be a larger point in the campaign. He will be our president, we want him so much we have put our widows mites behind him. (Recall the Bible story of the wodow who gives 2 cents and the Wealthy Man that give much, her gift was more precious because it was all she had…)
#3. Here is a video, of a level headed white man changing his mind to vote for Obama, compelling.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=15PCFvLURJ0
#4. TODAY: Hillary’s newest ad is reminicent of Regan’s Bear ad to get votes by scaring us with fears of the russians.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=IHO4M_Tar7A
OR Bushes Wolf Ad…
http://youtube.com/watch?v=MU4t9O_yFsY
Now Hillary…. So damn Republican!!!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=M70emIFxETs
I’m trying to stay positive and not be a hater, but everyone but Obama wants to take the quickest route to the mud that they can find.
The red phone ad was the last straw for me. It’s not like Hillary knew everything that was going on in the West Wing (and you know where this is going now). For eight years as First Lady, she didn’t even bother to get a security clearance. (As a point of comparison, a certain intern in the blue dress applied for and received a Secret clearance, which was processed in record time due to her connections.)
See what she’s done? She’s drug me into the mud with her. Gotta stay positive, gotta stay positive…
Hillary if you feel you to much of a fighter to give up, than please give in…. This will not make you any less of a woman. You ran a good show!!!!! Now let the Man do his job.
You nailed it.
Check out Frank Rich in today’s NY Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/opinion/02rich.html?hp
Two things burn me about McCain’s position on the war. (And remember: HIllary helped drive the bus into the ditch.)
One, the “surge” is not a strategy. He keeps saying that the surge is working. The generals went along with the name “the surge” because they’re too busy fighting the war to worry about marketing and branding. But a “surge” is not a strategy; it is a logistical means to support a strategy. And McCain has confused the success that comes with more manpower (and superior combat power by any sense of the definition) with strategic and political success. Of course if you put more boots on the ground, especially more American boots, you’re going to get the job done. But are you going to change the geopolitical landscape of Iraq so that those troops can come home? No, obviously, because a year later, nothing has changed.
Second, he belittles Obama by saying that we’re still in Germany, Japan, and Korea, so of course we’ll still be in Iraq in 100 years, and Obama doesn’t understand that. What McCain doesn’t understand is that we are not still in Panama or Grenada: military action does not equate to a mandatory forced presence forever. Germany, Korea, and Japan are all historical context dependent. In fact, Germany and Japan paid us to remain long after the reason for being there was gone, and the Korean War technically never ended, so that is a very unique situation. McCain says Obama isn’t ready to be CinC and doesn’t understand military history. I saw, McCain is mixing apples and oranges… no, apples and turnips in making a stretch of an argument to score political points.
I am not sure why going to a brokered convention is such a bad thing. Well, let me rephrase that. It is not a bad thing if the convention is open to all presses - bloggers, news, and TV. It is not a bad thing if all the convention meetings are open to press coverage and all of the decisions and tradeoffs are published and chronicled.
As it stand now about 53% of the democrats are for Obama and about 47% are for Clinton. Why not have a brokered convention where Barak publically puts to rest the notion that he is a Bush like majority maker (instead of ultra-conservatives and religious fundamentalists Barak is made up of young, Hispanic and black voters).
Instead Barak embraces the convention and puts forward his greatest possible contribution to American politics - raising America up from the deep valley of despair, cynicism and hopelessness - helping us to climb up on to the mountaintop and look out on the promised land - hand in hand, white, black and Hispanic, Jew and gentile, protestant and catholic, young and old - to sing in the words of that all negro spiritual Free at Last, Free At Last, Thank God Almighty we are free at last. Yes we can.
These last words are the paraphrased words of another great black man whose cadence and measured delivery are heard in Barak’s speeches. Not as a copy of style but as a heartfelt kinship to the work left undone by a life cut short.
If anyone is still questioning his vision on Change here it is America.
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/ObamaBlueprintForChange.pdf
Please pass this link on to anyone you know that tells you his vision of change is empty.
Yes We ALL Can.
I Like to see an Obama/Clinton ticket so that both have the chance to show the KINDA CHANGE they will to the countrey…. I’ll never vote for Obama if he choose this Clinton/Obama ticket as her vise-president because she needs him more than he needs her. Now people let’s focus on our way to the nomination … CaLL everyone that you know Donate For Obama. Hillary stay in the race but There will be blood . We all want a real change an that change is found in Obama’s supporter’s hope not hers. we want a president like Barack speek for us not for the americain flag but for americain people and This Country will be No COUNTRY FOR OLD MAN.
Yes We Can 08
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